Advisory - Tropical System Philippe

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL222023
1000 PM EST FRI NOV 17 2023

...HEAVY RAINS LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA THIS WEEKEND...
...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY AS ALL WATCHES HAVE BEEN 
DISCONTINUED AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 76.5W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM NE OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM W OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HAITI HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS 
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), THE DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED NEAR 
LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING 
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH (35 KM/H), AND A FASTER 
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, 
THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA DURING 
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. 
THE DISTURBANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE 
IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEKEND.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO CAN BE FOUND
IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT2 AND
WMO HEADER WTNT42 KNHC, AND ON THE WEB AT
HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDAT2.SHTML

RAINFALL:  THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL TOTAL 
RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 14 INCHES ACROSS 
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH 
SUNDAY. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING, ALONG WITH 
MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ACROSS JAMAICA, THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS, AS WELL AS THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. THIS RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING
IN URBAN AREAS.

SURF:  SWELLS GENERATED BY THE DISTURBANCE ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF JAMAICA, HAITI, AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE 
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, 
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1, WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC, AND ONLINE AT 
OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFAT1.PHP

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

Last Updated: 1000 PM EST